Grayscale’s latest research report dropped a bomb on the perpetuals market: Hyperliquid (HYPE) trades at 15–18x forward earnings, cheaper than Coinbase. The press grabbed the headline—'Institutional endorsement.' But the ledger remembers what the press forgets. Beneath the valuation multiple lies a chain of assumptions that on-chain data doesn’t fully support.
Context
Hyperliquid is a self-built L1 purpose-built for derivatives trading, primarily perpetuals. It operates an order-book model with a centralized sequencer (a known trade-off for speed) and has been live for over a year. The protocol generates real revenue from trading fees—estimated in the hundreds of millions annually based on public volume dashboards. Grayscale’s report focused on this cash flow, applying a forward P/E of 15–18x by dividing market cap by per-token earnings. The direct comparison to Coinbase (25–30x P/E) framed HYPE as undervalued. At the time of the report, HYPE traded at $55.
But Grayscale is a sell-side research house; their narrative serves a purpose. The real question: Does the on-chain evidence support a 15–18x multiple, or is the discount a mirage? I’ve spent years scraping transaction data—from Tether’s 2017 reserves to Uniswap V2’s liquidity flaws. When a big name assigns a tidy multiple, I trace the coins, not the claims.
Core: The Revenue Reality Check
Let’s start with the raw numbers. According to Dune Analytics dashboards tracking Hyperliquid’s fee revenue: - Daily trading volume (30-day average): $2.8 billion - Fees charged: 0.02%–0.06% per trade, average ~0.04% - Implied daily revenue: $1.12 million (2.8B × 0.04%) - Annualized revenue: ~$409 million
But here’s the catch: Not all revenue flows to HYPE token holders. Grayscale’s ‘per token earnings’ assumes the protocol distributes a portion of fees to stakers. Hyperliquid currently allocates ~60% of trading fees to the treasury and stakers via buybacks and yield. So staker-accessible revenue is roughly $245 million annualized.
Circulating supply: ~550 million HYPE (out of 1 billion max). Per token earnings: $245M ÷ 550M = $0.445 per token per year. At $55, that’s a trailing P/E of 124x—not 15–18x. Grayscale used forward earnings, presumably projecting growth. If they assume 300% revenue growth in the next 12 months (to reach $980 million staker revenue), then forward earnings become $1.78, yielding a 31x multiple—still above their 15–18x range. To hit 15x, forward earnings need to be $3.67 per token, requiring $2 billion in staker revenue—5x current levels. That’s aggressive for a maturing derivatives market.
What the ledger shows: - Hyperliquid’s volume peaked in March 2025 at $4.5B/day and has since declined 38% to $2.8B. - New user growth is flat; active traders are predominantly whales and bots. - The fee rate has dropped from 0.05% to 0.04% as competition from dYdX, Aevo, and SynFutures intensifies.
Floor prices are narratives; volume is truth. Grayscale’s headline P/E is built on a volume uptrend that the on-chain data contradicts. The narrative of ‘undervalued’ rests on a growth assumption that looks fragile.
Contrarian: Correlation ≠ Causation
Detractors will argue that Grayscale’s traditional P/E framework is inappropriate for crypto tokens—they should use price-to-sales or network value–to–transactions. But even ignoring that, the core flaw is the assumption that Hyperliquid’s revenue is insulated from competitive and regulatory forces.
Competitive erosion: dYdX v4 claims 2,000 TPS and runs on a sovereign Cosmos chain with a similar fee model. Aevo dominates options perpetuals. Hyperliquid’s ‘first mover’ advantage on a self-built chain is now matched. Any fee reduction to retain market share compresses revenue directly.
Regulatory shadow: The SEC has not classified HYPE, but Grayscale’s own legal team must have flagged the Howey test risks. A token deemed a security could crater liquidity and force CEX delistings—exactly what happened to XRP in 2020. A 50% drawdown would reset the P/E to 30x even without any revenue change.
Token supply overhang: 450 million unlocked tokens are yet to be released from team and investor vesting schedules (locked until 2026–2027). When those hit the market, staking yields will dilute, and per-token earnings drop. Forward multiples expand mechanically.
Yields are just risk with a prettier name. Grayscale’s report conveniently omitted these supply-side dynamics. The ledger doesn’t lie: wallet clusters show team multi-sigs still holding 20% of the supply.
Takeaway: The 15x is a snapshot, not a verdict
Next week, I’ll be watching two signals: (1) Daily volume > $3.5B—if it stays, the growth case firms up. (2) Token unlocks—any movement from team wallets into exchanges will signal insider doubt. Until then, treat Grayscale’s P/E as a marketing anchor, not a floor. The ledger remembers: narratives evaporate, but blocks are forever.