#iran

On May 9, 2026, Mark Penn — the pollster who once steered Bill Clinton throug...

The charts are painting a picture of calm. Bitcoin hovers at $68,200, up 1.2%...

Hook On April 11, 2025, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Within 72 hours,...

The missile launch from Iran toward a US military base on July 29 sent WTI...

The message arrives through Oman. A deputy foreign minister voices it: the...

Hook On May 21, 2024, at 14:23 UTC, an Iranian medium-range ballistic missile...

We didn't. We didn't see the real signal. When the news broke—Iran's Deputy...

Peering through the haze of speculative value, I found myself revisiting a...

The news hit at 03:14 UTC. A single line from Crypto Briefing: Iran threatens...

On April 11, 2025, Bitcoin's implied volatility surged 22% in 48 hours while...

A single line of logic can unravel a thousand lies. The scenario is...

A Saudi Patriot battery lit the sky over the Eastern Province last week. Dron...

The market just repriced a geopolitical tail in under 90 minutes. Yields fell...

Look at the oil futures curve. The front-month Brent spread collapsed by 3.2%...

On May 21, 2024, Iran condemned US attacks on rescue vessels in the Strait of...

The numbers didn’t lie, but my trust did. Last night, a 50-word leak landed o...

The numbers do not lie. A 30.5% probability of a US-Iran deal by 2026. That...

On March 31, 2025, a U.S. missile strike near the Iranian port of Hendijan se...

The 11th consecutive night of American airstrikes against Iranian military...

Hook The Polymarket contract “Iran closes airspace by Aug 31” hit 46.5% early...

The U.S. has threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. The headline feels li...

The ledger doesn't lie, but the market does – sometimes. On April 2025,...

On April 1, 2025, a prediction market contract on Polymarket priced the...

The probability of a US-Iran bilateral meeting by September 2026 is 0.1%. Tha...

Oil futures spiked 12% on the 11th consecutive night of U.S. airstrikes on...

On July 22, 2025, at 14:32 UTC, a single sentence from Iran’s Khatam al-Anbia...

The data shows a 30.5% probability of a US-Iran agreement in 2026, according ...

A crypto news site broke the story of U.S. strikes on Iranian military sites ...

Tweet 1 Hormozgan province says no attack or explosion. Polymarket says 74%...

Algo alert. A critical signal mismatch just landed on my desk. The U.S. dolla...

Tracing the ghost in the blockchain’s memory — A prediction market is pricing...

Last week, an explosive drone was intercepted near the U.S. consulate in Erbi...

The number is deceptively clean: 65%. Polymarket's "US stops offensive...

Iran's choice of Pakistan as a mediator after the US deal collapse is not a...

Polymarket shows a 29.5% probability for a US-Iran deal by 2026 that includes...

The prediction market isn't always wrong. But it's rarely the full story. On...

Over the past seven days, as protests in Iran spread from Tehran to smaller...

Hook: When Donald Trump declared in July 2021 that "our business with Iran is...

Seven vessels forced to change course. One ship disabled. The U.S. Navy has...

The prediction market flashed 45% — a single data point that has become the...

The ledger remembers what the market forgets—especially when the market is bu...

A vessel was hit by an unknown projectile near Dibba this morning. The World...

The contract on Polymarket reads: “Will Iran close its airspace within 7 days...

Hook On a quiet Tuesday morning, Polymarket's "Iran Airspace Closure" contrac...

On July 10, 2025, a single Polymarket contract suddenly surged. The implied...

A US MQ-9 Reaper fell from the sky over Kermanshah province. Iran claims...

Hook A missile that broke the defensive line. A probability that jumped 12.5...

PolyMarket traders are pricing a 54.5% probability that Iran’s airspace will ...

The prediction market speaks in fractions. 3.9% — a number so small it almost...

History rhymes, but the code doesn't. On-chain data and old-school...